The seaborne coal trade is presenting dry bulk shipping with an increasingly important paradox: while headline demand from China is softening, shifts in sourcing patterns are helping keep vessel demand more resilient than the top-line numbers suggest.
Recent research from Greece’s Ursa Shipbrokers shows that China’s total coal imports rose 3.4% year-on-year to 310.2m tonnes in the first eight months of 2026. Yet coal discharged from ocean-going vessels fell 3.7% to 221.3m tonnes over the same period.
The reason is increasingly tied to inland supply. Mongolia delivered 78.4m tonnes, accounting for more than a quarter of China’s coal imports, but those volumes generate no employment for bulk carriers. Seaborne steam coal imports declined 6.9% to 188.3m tonnes, while seaborne coking coal moved in the opposite direction, rising 31.1% to 29m tonnes.
To match last year’s full-year seaborne import total, China would need to bring in about 156m tonnes between September and December, around 6% more than in the same period of 2025.
Signal Research has struck a similarly cautious note. Its base-case forecast places China’s full-year seaborne thermal coal imports at 270m-290m tonnes, implying monthly arrivals of roughly 21m-26m tonnes for the rest of the year, compared with 25.3m tonnes recorded in both July and August.
Even so, the impact on shipping is proving more nuanced than the import figures alone would suggest. Signal estimates that panamaxes carried 132.7m tonnes of China’s seaborne thermal coal in January-August, up 1.9% year-on-year, while supramax volumes dropped sharply by 27.5% to 32m tonnes.
As Signal noted, “additional cargoes from more distant origins could increase voyage demand even if total tonnes ease.”
Indonesia is emerging as the key swing factor. MB Shipbrokers said production quotas and low river levels in Kalimantan are constraining coal movements from mines to loading ports just as Asian utilities begin preparing for winter. In response, buyers are postponing some Indonesian shipments and increasingly turning to Australia and Russia instead. According to MB Shipbrokers, that shift away from Indonesia toward longer-haul suppliers could lend support to tonne-mile demand, particularly for panamaxes.
If river conditions improve in October and November, however, delayed Indonesian cargoes could return to the market, potentially triggering another burst of activity later in the fourth quarter.
The geographic rebalancing is already visible in Banchero Costa’s data. Global seaborne coal exports reached 866.8m tonnes in January-August, up 1.7% year-on-year. Indonesian exports fell 5.2%, but Australia expanded 4.9%, Russia 10.1%, and the US 9.4%.
On the import side, the picture is similarly mixed. Chinese coal arrivals dropped 5.5% and India’s fell 8.1%, while South Korea posted a 16.9% increase and Japan rose 3.1%. Even so, coal remains shipping’s second-largest dry bulk commodity, accounting for about 23% of total cargo volumes.
Breakwave Advisors said in a new report that although coal volumes have clearly weakened year-on-year, vessel market tightness is currently being driven more by geopolitical and operational supply constraints, reducing the freight impact of softer underlying coal demand.