U.S. Container Imports Ease After an Extended, Stronger-Than-Expected Peak Season

U.S. container imports are finally starting to slow after an unusually long peak shipping season that ran through the summer and into early fall. That's the finding of the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.

The slowdown follows months of stronger-than-expected cargo volumes at major U.S. gateways. Retailers kept bringing in merchandise despite tariffs, inflation and rising transportation costs. For forwarders managing ocean freight into the U.S., this signals a shift from sustained peak-level demand toward a more measured fourth quarter.

August Emerges as 2026's Busiest Month

Ports covered by Global Port Tracker handled 2.3 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in August. A TEU is the industry's standard measure of container capacity, equal to one 20-foot container.

Key August figures:

• Month-over-month: Up 0.4% from July
• Year-over-year: Down 0.7% from August 2025
• Ranking: Now likely the busiest month of 2026, overturning last month's forecast that September would take the top spot

"Even with any fluctuations in final data, we're likely past the busiest part of the year," said Jonathan Gold, NRF vice president for supply chain and customs policy.

Gold noted how flat the curve has been. "The truth is that the peak season started early and was stretched out through the summer and early fall, with the difference from month to month often amounting to little more than a rounding error," he said.

Revised Forecast: A Gradual Step Down

The updated outlook points to a steady decline through the end of the year:

Even as volumes ease, September and October are still running well ahead of last year. That gives carriers and forwarders a solid base of activity heading into the final months of 2026.

Why the Peak Season Ran Longer Than Expected

This year's peak season has repeatedly defied forecasts. Early in 2026, retailers pulled merchandise forward to get ahead of tariff changes and supply chain uncertainty. Many in the industry expected that front-loading to produce an early peak, followed by a decline through the summer.

Instead, volumes stayed elevated. Two factors kept cargo moving:

• Shipping delays that pushed arrivals later into the season
• Resilient consumer demand that sustained steady replenishment orders

Port Performance Highlights

The strength showed up clearly at individual gateways:

• Port of Los Angeles: Recorded its busiest three-month stretch on record during June, July and August
• Port of Savannah: Reported a record September earlier this week, handling 504,015 TEUs, up 3.7% from a year earlier

These results show that demand was spread across both West Coast and East Coast gateways rather than concentrated in a single region.

A Mixed Economic Picture

Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett described the economic outlook as mixed. Consumers continue to spend, even as their confidence weakens.

"Despite this, consumers appear to remain confident and cautious at the same time, with consumer confidence indexes sliding to multi-year lows while consumer spending continues to be robust in the face of increasing inflation," Hackett said.

Full-Year Outlook: Modest Growth Over 2025

Global Port Tracker now expects imports at major U.S. container ports to reach 25.8 million TEUs for 2026. That represents:

• A 1.4% increase over the 25.4 million TEUs handled in 2025
• A slight upgrade from last month's forecast of 25.7 million TEUs

Early 2027 Projections

• January 2027: 2.07 million TEUs, down 1.9% year over year
• February 2027: 1.92 million TEUs, up 1%

What Comes Next

The extended season means much of the merchandise retailers need for the holidays is already in the country. As a result, a major import surge before year-end is unlikely.

"Most holiday merchandise has arrived, and the remainder of the year is just a matter of last-minute replenishment and preparation for early 2027," Gold said.

For freight forwarders, the takeaway is clear. The heaviest pressure on capacity and port operations appears to be behind us. The months ahead will be defined by:

• Smaller replenishment shipments rather than large peak-season volumes
• Closer attention to rate volatility as demand softens into November
• Early planning for Q1 2027, when January volumes are forecast to dip year over year before a modest rebound in February

Forwarders who stay in close contact with trusted partners at U.S. gateways and track these shifts carefully will be best placed to serve clients efficiently as the market moves into its post-peak phase.